基于概率分析的钢筋混凝土结构服役寿命预测研究

doi:10.11902/1005.4537.2020.209

中国腐蚀与防护学报

2021, Vol. 41

Issue (5): 673-678 DOI: 10.11902/1005.4537.2020.209

研究报告

本期目录 | 过刊浏览

基于概率分析的钢筋混凝土结构服役寿命预测研究

陈宣东¹^,², 章青¹(

), 顾鑫¹, 李星¹

^1.河海大学力学与材料学院南京 211100
^2.桂林理工大学土木与建筑工程学院广西建筑新能源与节能重点实验室桂林 541004

Probability Analysis on Service Life Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Structures

CHEN Xuandong¹^,², ZHANG Qing¹(

), GU Xin¹, LI Xing¹

^1.College of Mechanics and Materials, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China
^2.Guangxi Key Laboratory of New Energy and Building Energy Saving, College of Civil and Architecture Engineering, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China

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摘要:

采用Monte Carlo法建立了钢筋混凝土结构耐久性失效的概率模型，研究了钢筋混凝土结构服役寿命概率分布。结果表明，Monte Carlo模拟次数为10000次时，既节约计算资源又满足计算精度。采用概率方法 (p_fmax=5%和10%) 计算的结构服役寿命比用确定方法计算的服役寿命短，确定性模型低估了Cl^-侵蚀引起的耐久性失效。对水灰比、混凝土保护层厚度、粉煤灰掺量、表面Cl^-浓度、临界Cl^-浓度参数化分析结果表明，保护层厚度对服役寿命影响最为显著；同时，服役寿命长的结构，其安全储备期也较长，一般安全储备期在5~10 a之间。本文提出的服役寿命预测模型为钢筋混凝土结构的修复、健康监测提供了理论依据。

关键词 ：可靠度, 服役寿命, Cl^-侵蚀, 混凝土耐久性, 失效概率

Abstract：

Chloride ingress is one of the key factors that lead to the durability deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) structures in marine environment. Therefore, it is of great significance to constructed the service life prediction of RC structures serving in chloride containing environments to evaluate the safety performance of structures. In this paper, the probability model of durability of RC structure is established by using Monte Carlo method in order to acquire the probability distribution of service life of RC structures. The results show that the optimal number of Monte Carlo simulations is 10000 times, which not only saves computational resources but also meets the computational accuracy. The service life of the RC structures calculated by the probabilistic method (p_fmax=5% and 10%) is shorter than that calculated by the deterministic method, which indicates the deterministic model underestimates the durability deterioration caused by chloride ingress. The parameterized analysis results of water-cement ratio, concrete cover thickness, fly ash content, surface chloride ion concentration and critical chloride ion concentration show that the thickness of concrete cover has the most significant effect on the service life, and the safety reserve period of the RC structure of long service life is also longer, and the general safety reserve period is between 5 and 10 a. Therefore, the service life prediction model based on reliability method provides a theoretical basis for the repair and health monitoring of reinforced concrete structures.

Key words： reliability service life chloride ion ingress concrete durability failure probability

收稿日期: 2020-10-26

ZTFLH:

TU528

基金资助:国家自然科学基金(11932006);国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0406703);广西中青年教师;基础能力提升项目(2020KY06029)

通讯作者: 章青 E-mail: lxzhangqing@hhu.edu.cn

Corresponding author: ZHANG Qing E-mail: lxzhangqing@hhu.edu.cn

作者简介: 陈宣东，男，1990年生，硕士，讲师

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引用本文:

陈宣东, 章青, 顾鑫, 李星. 基于概率分析的钢筋混凝土结构服役寿命预测研究[J]. 中国腐蚀与防护学报, 2021, 41(5): 673-678.
Xuandong CHEN, Qing ZHANG, Xin GU, Xing LI. Probability Analysis on Service Life Prediction of Reinforced Concrete Structures. Journal of Chinese Society for Corrosion and protection, 2021, 41(5): 673-678.

链接本文:

https://www.jcscp.org/CN/10.11902/1005.4537.2020.209 或 https://www.jcscp.org/CN/Y2021/V41/I5/673

表1 输入参数概率分布特征[16,21-23]

图1 Monte Carlo模拟次数对失效概率稳定性和计算时间影响

图2 钢筋混凝土结构耐久性失效概率曲线和模拟值与实验值对比

图3 施工参数对结构耐久性失效概率曲线影响

图4 临界Cl-浓度和表面Cl-浓度对结构耐久性影响

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