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中国腐蚀与防护学报  2016, Vol. 36 Issue (4): 370-374    DOI: 10.11902/1005.4537.2015.152
  研究报告 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 |
基于Gumbel极值I型分布埋地油气管道的剩余寿命预测
张新生(),曹乃宁,李亚云
西安建筑科技大学管理学院 西安 710055
Residual Life Prediction of Buried Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Gumbel Extreme Value Type I Distribution
Xinsheng ZHANG(),Naining CAO,Yayun LI
School of Management, Xi'an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi'an 710055, China
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摘要: 

基于Gumbel极值I型分布,对在线检测原始数据进行处理,建立油气管道最大腐蚀深度预测模型,确定整条油气腐蚀管道可能存在的最大腐蚀深度;以此建立管道剩余壁厚模型,来预测油气管道的剩余寿命;最后以国内的某一管道为例,将该模型应用于整条管道的剩余寿命预测中,预测结果为19.95 a,表明该方法预测的结果是合理的。

关键词 油气管道腐蚀最大腐蚀深度剩余寿命预测Gumbel极值I型分布Markov链MonteCarlo模拟    
Abstract

Original corrosion data, which were acquired by online detecting a buried oil and gas pipeline, were processed in accord with the Gumbel extreme value type I distribution, then a model for predicting the maximum corrosion depth is built to determine the possible maximum corrosion depth of the whole pipeline with the above method, a model for predicting the residual thickness of pipe wall is established to predict the residual life of oil and gas pipelines. In the end, as an example, the model was used to predict the residual life of a domestic pipeline in service, it is ca 19.95 a, which indicates that the predict result is correct and reasonable.

Key wordsoil and gas pipeline corrosion    maximum depth of corrosion pit    residual life prediction    Gumbel extreme value type I distribution    Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation
    
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目 (61271278),陕西省社会科学基金项目(2015R13)和陕西省自然科学基金项目 (2016JM6023) 资助

引用本文:

张新生,曹乃宁,李亚云. 基于Gumbel极值I型分布埋地油气管道的剩余寿命预测[J]. 中国腐蚀与防护学报, 2016, 36(4): 370-374.
Xinsheng ZHANG, Naining CAO, Yayun LI. Residual Life Prediction of Buried Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Gumbel Extreme Value Type I Distribution. Journal of Chinese Society for Corrosion and protection, 2016, 36(4): 370-374.

链接本文:

https://www.jcscp.org/CN/10.11902/1005.4537.2015.152      或      https://www.jcscp.org/CN/Y2016/V36/I4/370

图1  剩余寿命预测步骤流程图
Intervals of maximumpartial corrosion depth Number of maximumpartial corrosion depth / mm
(0.5, 1.0] 2
(1.0, 1.5] 10
(1.5, 2.0] 5
(2.0, 2.5] 3
(2.5, 3.0] 1
表1  局部管道最大腐蚀深度
图2  最大腐蚀深度概率分布
图3  参数α和λ的迭代轨迹
图4  参数α和λ的迭代历史
图5  参数α和λ的置信度
图6  管道剩余寿命预测
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